2026 college football predictions: Kansas State will win a wide open Big 12
When realignment hit college football, it seemed pretty clear that the Big 12 would be the Wild West of the Power 4.With Texas and Oklahoma out of the picture, there was not supposed to be a big dog in the conference, opening things up for chaos and carnage.But things change faster than ever in college football these days, and it’s clear that Texas Tech is hell-bent on filling the void left by the Longhorns and Sooners.The Red Raiders were one of the best teams in the nation in 2025, earning a bye into the second round of the College Football Playoff, but they fell flat against Oregon in the Orange Bowl.Texas Tech has reloaded for the upcoming season, and the market has taken notice, installing them at -105 to win the Big 12 and making them one of two odds-on favorites (along with Miami in the ACC) to win their conference at DraftKings Sportsbook.
BYU (+550) and Utah (+650) are pegged as Tech’s biggest competition, while last year’s favorite, Kansas State (15/1), Houston (16/1), and Arizona (19/1), are the only other programs under 20/1.Going by the odds, this one seems straightforward.Texas Tech will meet whoever comes out of the Holy War between Utah and BYU.
Set it and forget it, right?Not so fast.Texas Tech has a red flag.And it’s a big one.
We don’t know much about their quarterback.Joey McGuire recruited Brandon Sorsby to Lubbock, but he’s been disqualified due to a gambling scandal.
That means Will Hammond, who missed most of last year with a torn ACL, will get the nod.If McGuire was confident that Hammond would be good enough to pilot this team, why would he try and get Sorsby?The Red Raiders may be good enough in all other areas to overcome mediocre QB play (they did it last year, after all), but that’s not the kind of profile I want to bet on when a team is in odds-on territory to win a notoriously chaotic conference.There are a lot of things to like about Kansas State’s makeup, but in reality this bet comes down to a few core questions...